Knowledge base of climate policy
The knowledge base of climate policy is insufficient for providing a basis for a cost-effective and adequate climate policy. The preparatory process should also be brought forward, and the targets for individual sectors in the process should be better coordinated.
Photo: Getty Images
Scope of the audit
- It was assessed whether the preparation and coordination of climate policy plans and their knowledge base are appropriately organised
- It was examined whether the knowledge base allows the selection of climate measures that meet the climate policy goals, taking cost-effectiveness into account
- It was assessed whether the calculation and modelling used as the knowledge base of climate policy could be utilised appropriately
Key findings
- Sector-specific targets for climate policy plans have not been coordinated to achieve the carbon neutrality target for 2035
- Not enough information on the emission and cost impacts of individual emission reduction measures is available to support decision-making
- The scenario modelling system is too rigid to support decision-making, and the assumptions used in the modelling are not fully consistent
Briefly
Climate policy plans specified in the Climate Act and the climate and energy strategy are prepared for each government term. When preparing its plans, Prime Minister Orpo’s Government has not coordinated the sector-specific targets to the extent that they would be sufficient for the 2035 carbon neutrality target.
Emission and cost estimates of the alternative measures considered for the plans are inadequately available to decision-makers, which means that decision-makers are unable to select measures on the basis of cost-effectiveness. The cost-effectiveness of the measures may vary considerably, and information on them is thus essential for the implementation of a cost-effective climate policy. The scenario modelling system used to assess overall emission trends is rigid, which makes it less useful as a support tool for decision-making. The definitions of scenario modelling should also be harmonised.
The knowledge base of climate policy should be enhanced to better support decision-making.
Recommendations of the National Audit Office
The Ministry of the Environment, Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment and Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry should work together to ensure that targets are set for different sectors in the climate policy plans and to promote target coordination in preparatory work, ensuring that the combined targets for the emissions trading and land use sectors lead to the achievement of the carbon neutrality target in 2035 and that the sector-specific targets are in line with the EU emission targets. To promote their coordination, the Medium-term Climate Plan and the Climate Plan for the Land Use Sector should be prepared concurrently during each parliamentary term.
The Ministry of the Environment, Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Transport and Communications should ensure that the following are available for government programme talks: – scenario modelling (WEM, With Existing Measures) that describes the current trends in emissions – a public inventory of climate measures and their impacts on emissions and costs, which is produced by public officials and by engaging experts.
The Ministry of the Environment, Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Transport and Communications should see to the appropriateness of the scenario modelling and the impact assessment of climate measures by ensuring that – WEM scenarios are defined consistently in the different sectors – the modelling framework can also be applied to assessing climate action affecting fellings – permanent resources are allocated to scenario modelling that supports decision-making.
Timing of follow-up
The follow-up of the audit will be conducted in 2027.
Contact persons
Ville Seppälä
Ville Haltia
Principal Fiscal Policy Auditor
Fiscal policy audit
